In the case of sanctions, how would the globe manage without Russian oil and gas?

 As European nations battle with high energy prices, a crucial Russian gas pipeline has remained shut, drastically restricting supplies. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, Western nations are making efforts to reduce their reliance on Russian gas and oil. How much gas from Russia does Europe consume?

Last year, 40% of the EU's natural gas came from Russia. The biggest importer in 2021 was Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, followed by Italy.

What effects do sanctions have?

The EU has implemented several penalty packages on Russia since February, some of which target the country's energy sector.

According to the Kremlin, "technical issues" brought on by Western sanctions hinder Russia from providing gas through the Nord Stream project. A turbine leak, according to the report, has been found.

The technology required for the transportation of gas into Europe, however, is unaffected by the sanctions regime, an EU official told the BBC.

The manufacturer of the gas turbines, Siemens Energy, claimed that these kinds of leakage "typically do not disrupt the operation of a turbine."

Ben McWilliams, a Bruegel energy policy expert, thinks that this doesn't seem like a good enough cause to shut down a pipeline. "I'm as positive as I can be that this is Putin's latest attempt to rig gas prices and exert pressure on Europe's energy networks."

Additionally, Gazprom claimed that certain gas turbines could not be maintained due to missing paperwork; however, Siemens Energy has refuted this claim.

Russian gas prices may be capped, according to the EU. If it takes such a measure, President Putin has threatened to shut off all energy supplies.

The EU has also stated that it will reduce Russian gas imports by two-thirds within a year, but has refrained from outright banning them.

Member states have promised to reduce gas use by 15% over the next seven months in order to assist it meet its objective.

There is uncertainty on the location of the EU's alternative sources, and it may be necessary for it to import LNG in tankers from suppliers like the US and Qatar.

Kate Dourian, a consultant on energy, said "In Europe, there aren't enough LNG terminals. Particularly for Germany, this will be an issue."

Will oil become scarce in Europe?

By the end of this year, the EU has agreed to forbid any seaborne imports of Russian oil.

Because Hungary and Slovakia rely on imported oil, it will permit its continued importation as a "temporary measure."

The prohibition may still considerably reduce the amount of oil available to some European countries.

According to the most recent figures available, in November of last year, Lithuania and Finland received roughly 80% of their oil from Russia.

However, oil from other producers is available to EU nations.

Earlier this year, President Biden authorized a significant release of oil from America's reserves, and the IEA, a group of oil-importing nations, agreed to release 120 million barrels of petroleum from their holdings.

The US has imposed a total ban on Russian oil imports, while the UK has seen a significant decline in its oil imports over the past year.

The European Commission and the United States are both considering backup plans in case Russian gas supplies to the EU are further reduced or, in the worst case scenario, completely stopped as the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine grows. Could Europe replace Russian gas imports this winter and the following two winters if this were to occur? Regardless of what happens, the most effective approach is for demand-side changes to lessen reliance on gas rather than just substituting Russian gas with imports from another nation.

We outline the gas supply scenario for this winter below, before going into the difficulties of a protracted supply disruption and concentrating on potential demand-side changes.

A dramatic picture, with Europe's gas balance for the winter heavily dependent on Russian supplies and favourable weather, emerged at the end of 2021. A worst-case situation has thus far been avoided due to three key reasons: The "winter risk" of exceptionally cold temperatures has not materialized; since Christmas, average daily temperatures at Frankfurt airport have been 4.7°C, compared to the previous 10-year average of 3.1°C; and iii) a continuation of contractual supplies by Russia, amounting to 18 TWh/week. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased significantly: 80 terawatt hours (TWh) in the first 24 days of January 2022, compared to 60 T As a result, storage levels were 42% full on January 24, 2022.

The EU's overall storage would reach a low of roughly 320 TWh in April 2022 if Russia and all other suppliers maintain their current levels of production, which would entail historically high levels of LNG imports.

Storage would reach a minimal level of 140 TWh in April 2022 if Russia reduces supplies at the start of February.

By the end of March 2022, all of the EU's storage will be empty if the weather is exceptionally cold in addition to Russia limiting supply.

As a result, the EU as a whole will probably be able to endure a significant disruption to Russian gas imports in the medium term. When the specific economic, technical, and political dynamics of the various gas markets within the EU are taken into account, the situation gets more complex.

An important location for LNG import ports is the Iberian Peninsula. As a result, the area can only use 30 TWh of the 40 TWh it may import each month. Given that the current pipelines only allow a maximum transfer of 5 TWh per month, the difficulty is in delivering the extra gas to the rest of Europe. Gas entering France is usually odorized and cannot be pumped unrestrictedly into neighbouring gas networks. Gas in the north-west European market comes in a variety of grades and uses various infrastructures, including locally produced low-calorific L-gas in some regions of Germany and the Netherlands and imported high-calorific H-gas in the rest of Europe. Additionally, the pipeline infrastructure in central and eastern Europe is made to transport goods from the east to end users. 

The Russian president is taking advantage of reducing Russian gas since other nations, like Pakistan, are experiencing inflation and the value of the ruble in Russia is rising because the majority of traders accept rubble as payment.