Pakistan's provincial and federal governments' economic studies

  

 

ABSTRACT

Rural communities, particularly those in emerging nations, are constantly losing money and crop production due to market dynamics and climate dangers. The unique research of this study focuses on farmers' perceptions of market and climatic risks and their coping techniques in Punjab, Pakistan. Pakistan is one of the ten countries with the highest risk of natural disasters for its inhabitants, according to a recent worldwide assessment, largely due to its corrupt administration, subpar infrastructure, and failure to effectively implement risk-reduction measures. Pakistan rated seventh on a list of the world's riskiest nations in which Verisk Maplecroft, a risk management company with operations in the UK, placed it, with 136 million (or 70%) of its people at risk. A number of natural disasters, such as floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, and droughts, frequently affect Pakistan due to its hazardous location. Rapid population growth, unrestrained development, and uncontrolled infrastructure expansion are the main factors that raise a region's susceptibility to natural disasters. Each year, the monsoon season in Pakistan, which lasts from June to September, brings with it variable amounts of precipitation. Floods, including flash floods, riverine floods, and urban floods, are some of the most common natural disasters. When coupled with other potent risks like landslides, cloudbursts, and GLOFs (Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods), they can develop into catastrophes that pose various challenges for the country's disaster management system. However, less rainfall in some areas of the country is causing a drought-like situation. An exhaustive and proactive multi-sectoral

 

 

 

 

Introduction

Severe natural hazards include floods, earthquakes, landslides, cyclones, and droughts in the current world situation (Eckstein et al., 2018; Verlynde et al., 2019; Ahmad and Afzal, 2020). Compared to other risks, floods are thought to be more destructive and cyclical (UNDP, 2016; Teo et al., 2021). (Shah et al., 2021). The severity of floods contributes significantly to social hazards, economic losses, and societal mortality, which are regularly exposed by humans (Aldrich and Metaxa, 2018; Ahmad et al., 2019). In 2017, these disasters had an impact on more than 96 million people, with floods accounting for 60% of those impacts (Emergency Event Database, 2017). Due to the greater frequency and intensity of floods over the past 20 years, Asian nations including Bangladesh, India, China, and Pakistan have been called the "supermarkets of floods" (Bodoque et al., 2019; Ballesteros-Cánovas et al., 2020). Particularly, rural populations in poorer nations are more vulnerable to flooding because of a lack of resources and insufficient flood protection techniques (Abbas et al., 2015; Ahmad et al., 2020).

One of the five nations where, within a decade, 80% of the population would be severely exposed to ongoing floods, along with India, Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam, is Pakistan (World Resources Institute, 2015). Due to its location in a hazard-prone area and its ongoing flood problems, Pakistan is regarded as one of the world's most hazard-affected countries over the past 20 years, namely the flood hazard-affected countries (Abbas et al., 2015; Ahmad and Afzal, 2020). Major contributing causes to flood threats in connected rivers' downstream and upstream flow are glacier melting and successive cycles of rainfall (Ullah et al., 2018; Ahmad et al., 2019). The worst flash flooding in Pakistan's history occurred in 2010 (National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), 2011); it cost the country $10 billion in economic losses, destroyed 2 million hectares of cropland, and had a negative impact on the 24 million people who live there (UNDP, 2016; Abid et al., 2016; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), 2017).

 

            Due to repeated drastic climate shifts and very severe monsoon seasons, Punjab is predicted to be more vulnerable to flooding than to earthquakes and tornadoes (Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Punjab 2014). These three categories of flood dangers, formally referred as as flash floods, river in floods, and urban floods, are more common in Punjab province (PDMA, Punjab 2017). These floods most usually occur during monsoon season every year, resulting in terrible property losses and lost lives (Ahmad and Afzal, 2020). From 1950 to 2014, Punjab saw over 22 severe floods, many of which were disastrous (Yaqub et al., 2015; Shah et al., 2017).

            Twelve districts in Punjab are classified as being at a higher risk of flooding. Three of these districts—Mianwali, Dera Ghazi Khan, and Rajanpur—are noted as being at a higher risk of flash flooding because they are located near mountainous areas where storms frequently cause narrow watercourses to flood quickly and directly (PDMA, Punjab 2017).

            The perception of flood risk is now acknowledged as a key element in flood risk management (Verlynde et al., 2019; Ahmad et al., 2020), and it is especially important to the ongoing integration of traditional risk assessment methods with social aspects (Botzen et al., 2009; Ahmad et al., 2019). The perception of the source of risk in terms of the severity of shocks, the possibility of an impending flood, and the examination of the dynamic tendency of risk are all influenced by a person's beliefs, deeds, and behaviours (Becker et al., 2014; Pitalar et al., 2014; Cole et al., 2016).

Risk perception and flood risk are strongly correlated, and a built-in approach to risk management will help to combine flood risk assessment and management (Rowe and Wright, 2001; Baan and Klijn, 2004; Messner and Meyer, 2006). The current situation is characterised by an overestimation of personal preparation or an underestimating of risk due to insufficient information about public perception or potential emergency response times (Barberi et al., 2008).

The establishment of a psychometric paradigm in research is predicated on the logical supposition that risk is psychologically determined and inherently subjective (Slovic, 1992; Fischhoff et al., 2016). The primary goal of the psychometric paradigm is to identify the risk perception component (Slovic, 1987). The psychometric paradigm is used in most risk perception research studies to assess the numerous rating scales for risks, including newness (familiar or new), consequences of severity (how severe effects will be), and risk knowledge (Fischhoff et al., 1978). (how extent of risk). The majority of research investigations assess participant accounting averages in relation to their qualitative traits as hazards files become highly associated to determine participants' perceptions of risk. The bulk of research papers use two main components to repeat their findings: dread danger and unknown risk.

Flooding risks adaptation (Wisner et al., 2004; Osberghaus, 2015; Ahmad et al., 2020), local community flood risk management (López-Marrero and Yarnal, 2010; Wilby and Keenan, 2012; Verlynde et al., 2019), and hazard causes, mitigation measures choices and constraints were all specifically discussed in literature about flood hazards in developed and developing countries. Few empirical studies have examined whether a person's beliefs about flood hazards have a discernible impact on risk perception (Bubeck et al., 2012; Kellens et al., 2013; Diakakis et al., 2018; Lechowska, 2018), whereas other studies have highlighted the importance of human behaviour and actions in shaping perceptions of the source of a hazard, its shocks and their severity, and an impending flood.

In certain research (Armaş and Avram, 2009; Kellens et al., 2011; Pagneux et al., 2011; Becker et al., 2014), the topic of nonprofessional (laymen) awareness and factors linked with various emotions about risk perception and mitigation was also covered. A small body of research (Rowe and Wright, López-Marrero and Yarnal, Terpstra and Lindell, Ryan, 2013; Poussin et al., 2014) highlighted the aspect of actual individual behaviour with regard to risk, including risk mitigation actions, insurance adaptation, and seeking information about flood's major factor regarding perception of flood risk. In certain empirical investigations, psychometric features of flood hazards, such as demographic characteristics or prior flood experience, were identified as predictors of awareness, behaviour, future flooding likelihood, and perception of risk (Fischhoff et al., 2013).

The South Asian region is predicted to become dry in 2025, which will significantly affect water requirements, agricultural usage, and crop yields in semi-arid and arid areas by around 6 to 18 percent (Abbas & Dastgeer, 2021). Managing physiographic features and surface water resources is important for human beings who practise agriculture as well as for themselves. However, from a worldwide perspective, agricultural planning has been seen as an important sector in irrigation planning (Abbas et al., 2020b; Abbas Hussain et al., 2020a; Abbas, Shirazi, et al., 2020).

While generally, droughts are viewed as multiple severe events that have a gloomy impact on food security, water availability, and agriculture, wet and dry seasons in Asia, notably in Pakistan and India, suggest the primary drivers for climate dynamics (Abbas & Kousar, 2021). Wet and dry seasons in Asia, particularly in Pakistan and India, represent the main drivers for climate dynamics. Droughts are typically seen as a series of catastrophic events that have a negative influence on food security, water availability, and agriculture (Abbas & Kousar, 2021).

Environmental diseases, a concoction of managing substantial infrastructure from tremendous environments of cold or heat, and recurrent hazards of drought and floods are among the climatic dynamics that have severely affected natural resource-based countries and farming communities' livelihoods (IPCC, 2017; Kimaro et al., 2018). (Brenes et al., 2020; Kgosikoma et al., 2018; Opiyo et al., 2015; Wako et al., 2017). Multiple environmental concerns, notably to agriculture in underdeveloped countries, are projected to arise from frequent dynamics in climate change and main climatic dangers in the twenty-first century (Abbas et al., 2017; Ahmad & Afzal, 2020a, 2020b).

The frequency and severity of flood disasters have increased over the past few decades, especially in South and Southeast Asia, and are expected to continue to grow in the next decades (Ahmad & Afzal, 2020a, 2020b; Gorst et al., 2015; Hirabayashi et al., 2013). According to global studies, the South Asian region is more susceptible to flood disasters than any other (Abbas et al., 2017; Mahmood et al., 2020). There are 45% of undernourished homes in the region, and 86% of the population's livelihood is adversely impacted by regular floods and droughts (Naz et al., 2018; Shahzad, 2020; Spijkers & Boonstra, 2017). China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are notable South Asian nations with a higher frequency of natural disasters and are generally regarded as the supermarket of flood dangers (Adu et al., 2018).

In particular, the incidence and vigour of in South and Southeast Asia over the past few decades. In Pakistan, 50% of riverbank erosion occurs during the monsoon season, resulting in the loss of vital fertile lands, crops, and infrastructure. In the Asian region, 7.6% of the continent area saw severe riverbank erosion rates (Bhatti et al., 2021).

Role of Digital Media in Flood Situations

The fact that people are dying in Pakistan is not being covered by Pakistani social media, which is still focused on the circumstances surrounding Imran Khan and the military's relationship with the Qatari government.Additional Sessions Judge Tahir Abbas Supra also extended imran Khan's interim release on a charge of unlawful assembly until September 7 in exchange for a bond of 5,000 Pakistani rupees ($22.8).

The three people Khan was accused of threatening did not press charges, according to Khan's attorney Babar Awan, who spoke to the courtroom's full attendance.

Khan's comments from the event were repeated by Awan, who questioned why Khan's remark, "'have some shame,' which is widely used informally, is considered threatening."

After a brief hearing, the court delayed the case and granted interim bail while also sending letters to the prosecution and the PTI's attorneys for their responses. A draught deal allowing the government to send troops to Qatar in November for the FIFA football World Cup has been approved by the cabinet of Pakistan. On Monday, Pakistan's minister of information, Mariyam Aurangzeb, declared that the Cabinet had approved the draught agreement for sending troops to Qatar for the massive event, which is planned to take place from November 21 to December 18. The Joint Staff Headquarters (JSHQ) requested the agreement's signature, and neither the foreign ministry nor the Directorate General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had any objections, according to a report in The Express Tribune daily. The Cabinet then approved the proposal

The Prerequisites for Effective Transboundary Water Governance

When strong and trustworthy organizations control transnational floods through a process of agreed-upon regulations and operational processes, the impact of flooding can be significantly mitigated (Bakker, 2007; Norman & Bakker, 2013).The best practises for transboundary FRM include information sharing, transparent agreements, coordinated efforts, local expertise, and trust (Norman & Bakker, 2013; Swanenvleugel, 2012).In handling the complexity of issues like uncertainty, an integrated setting where stakeholders have a common understanding of the challenges, comparable mindsets, and similar roles can be especially useful (Bernauer, 2002; Clamen, 2013).

The Pakistani Government will Issue a Global Appeal.

In order to address the dreadful flood situation in the nation brought on by unrelenting rain, which has resulted in the deaths of 830 people, the Pakistani government has decided to launch an international appeal.The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) made this decision during an urgent briefing on the flood disaster in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to Dawn News.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called to the nation to support the flood-affected people in addition to looking externally for assistance to lessen the destruction caused by extraordinary monsoon rainfall, as the government needed hundreds of billions to rehabilitate the victims.

Observing School Children

Disasters disproportionately harm children, both immediately and long-term, especially in underdeveloped nations. Due to their lack of resources, inadequate preparation, and lack of awareness of their potential, children in rural areas are more likely to experience hardship. While many kids still ask their parents or other adults for assistance in emergencies, a child's attitude, awareness, and level of preparedness are just as crucial.Millions of children's lives, rights, and needs are at risk due to disasters throughout the world. If society or the government is unable to comprehend the dangers that disasters represent to the welfare of the children, it will be impossible to protect their interests.

Public Impression of Flood Risk

Severe natural hazards include floods, earthquakes, landslides, cyclones, and droughts in the current world situation (Eckstein et al., 2018; Verlynde et al., 2019; Ahmad and Afzal, 2020). Compared to other risks, floods are thought to be more destructive and cyclical (UNDP, 2016; Teo et al., 2021). (Shah et al., 2021). The severity of floods contributes significantly to social hazards, economic losses, and societal mortality, which are regularly exposed by humans (Aldrich and Metaxa, 2018; Ahmad et al., 2019). In 2017, these disasters had an impact on more than 96 million people, with floods accounting for 60% of those impacts (Emergency Event Database, 2017). Bangladesh, India, China, and Pakistan are among the Asian nations dubbed as the "supermarkets of floods" (Diakakis et al., 2018; Ahmad and Afzal, 2021).

In recent decades, expanding human enterprises that are dangerous and foolish have endangered and radicalized mainstream economic operations. As a result, the environment is seriously threatened, which has an effect on communities of people. In the past, the threats to human health were brought on by people interacting with the environment, which had an impact on it in a way that increased the risk and spread of infections that were difficult to control. Thus, despite the enormous medical advancements made in the 1970s to eradicate fatal creatures, the world has occasionally failed to fight certain diseases and illnesses, both well-known and obscure. Due to its enormous population and despite other factors, the World Bank group in China (2020) has identified China as one of the world's cloudiest nations.

Coronavirus cases in Pakistan

            It is significant to note that conflicting opinions about the emergence of the pandemic above in the world have been expressed by governments, private companies, and the general people. However, it is significant that a heated discussion about the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on the country's economy has broken out in many parts of Pakistan, especially the provinces. Pakistan is facing difficulties as a result of a lack of resources to deal with the current situation. Although there are organized strategies and measures in place to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19), these are hindered by a lack of funding. Additionally, following other nations' measures could reduce economic uncertainty, as the authors claimed in the context of uncertainty around the conclusion of the pandemic, when combined with economic, fiscal, and monetary policies that mitigate.

Oil prices' indirect impact on Food Prices

            Oil prices have an indirect impact on agricultural commodities through a variety of pathways in addition to having an immediate impact. However, the exchange rate channel is the most crucial of these channels. The reason for emphasising the exchange rate's mediating role in the relationship between oil prices and food prices is that countries that import oil, like Pakistan, pay their import bills in foreign currency on the global market, which drives up demand for foreign currency in oil-importing nations. This study looked at the exchange rate's indirect impact of oil prices on food costs. We created a Composite Index (CI) based on the prices of various agricultural commodities, such as wheat, cotton, rice, gramme, sugar cane, and maize. Principal Component Analysis is used to produce this index.

At the end of 2021, a dramatic picture emerged, with Europe's gas balance for the winter being mostly dependent on Russian supplies and favorable weather. Three main factors have prevented a worst-case scenario thus far: Since Christmas, average daily temperatures at Frankfurt Airport have been 4.7°C, compared to the previous 10-year average of 3.1°C; and iii) a continuance of contractual supplies by Russia, equivalent to 18 TWh/week. The "winter risk" of very cold temperatures has not materialized. 80 terawatt hours (TWh) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) were imported in the first 24 hours of January 2022, up from 60 T. As a result, on January 24, 2022, storage levels were 42% full.

Conclusion

In just three weeks after the monsoon season began in July, Pakistan has received more than 60% of its annual average monsoon rainfall. Urban and flash floods, landslides, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) have all been brought on by the country's heavy rainfall; Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Sindh provinces have been particularly hard hit.

According to reports, more than 1 million people have been impacted, especially in the provinces of Sindh (436,000), Balochistan (360,000), and Punjab (119,000). Rainfall has surged by 267% in Balochistan and 183% in Sindh compared to pre-monsoon averages, resulting in significant harm to people's lives, infrastructure, and way of life.

At least 580 people have died as a result of the extreme weather, including 224 children and 114 women, according to Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Additionally, 939 people have been injured, including 194 children and 273 women. According to reports, about 23,000 people have been forced from their houses, with about 8,200 of them living in Sindh, 7,000 in Balochistan, 4,700 in Punjab, and 3,000 in KP. Bridges, train lines, and roads have also been obstructed by floodwaters and debris flows, limiting overland transport to and from the impacted areas. Since June 14, it is estimated that 50,000 houses—10,000 of them completely—along with 3,000 kilometres of road, 42 businesses, and 119 bridges have sustained damage.

The NDMA estimates that 107,000 animals, including 29,000 large ruminants, have died as a result of the floods. Livestock, a major source of employment in Balochistan, is also a significant source of nourishment, with animal products used as staple foods. Additionally, according to the Pakistan Food Security and Agriculture Working Group (FSAWG), the recent floods have harmed over 1,000 animal shelters and over 1 million acres of crops. In Balochistan's flood-affected areas, about 955,000 people are expected to experience acute food insecurity between July and November 2022 (IPC Phases 3 and 4), including about 594,000 people in districts that were completely flooded (Gwadar, Nushki, Pangur, and other nearby places).

Recommenditions

Plantations are the best answer to this issue. Plantations are actually man-made forests; some species, such as mangroves and eucalyptus, are highly beneficial since they naturally shield us from natural disasters like floods, tidal waves, and tsunamis.

In order to enhance collection and storage while lowering surface runoff, trees are planted in drainage basins through the process of "aforestation." This lessens a river's outflow, which lessens the likelihood that it may flood.

Utilizing man-made structures like dams and embankments is referred to as hard engineering management. Soft engineering management, like flood plain zoning, is a more organic way to regulate flooding.

Managing floods Some flood control techniques date back to ancient times. These techniques include creating floodways, terracing hillsides to restrict flow downwards, and growing vegetation to capture extra water (man-made channels to divert floodwater).

Risk can be decreased in already developed areas by altering flood behaviour (for instance, through the construction of dams, detention basins, levees, and changes to the waterways), altering properties (for instance, by filling in unused land, raising houses, and removing developments), and altering responses.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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